Annual Energy Usage Projections

I joined bulb in January 2018 and have submitted monthly readings.
During this 9mths I have used 2941Kw of electricity (with an E7 meter 2/3rd of this is at low rate) and 7672Kw of gas.
My annual projection when viewing the account is currently 8268kw for electricity and 11359kw for gas.
Clearly something seems to be wrong with the way Bulb is calculating energy projections as with 3mths of the year to go I will
use no where near the amount of projected electricity whereas the gas value is probably reasonable.
For the last 10 years my annual usage has been in the 5000/11000 ballpark.
Do you only use a single monthly figure to calculate projections or do you actually take into account the historical data?
Can you explain how the projection is calculated please?

As far as I am aware they use yearly figures for calculating usage.
You say your current average annual usage is 5000 / 11000 (is that gas or elec)
Bulb are projecting 8268, that appears to be within your normal range (if elec).

Bear in mind Bulb are estimating which may not reflect current usage.

As far as I am aware they use yearly figures for calculating usage. You say your current average annual usage is 5000 / 11000 (is that gas or elec) Bulb are projecting 8268, that appears to be within your normal range (if elec).

Bear in mind Bulb are estimating which may not reflect current usage.

Well no if you look at the whole message the discrepency is with the electricity figure ie I have used 2941kw and the projected figure is
8268kw.
I have just spoken to Bulb and apparently the estimate has very little to do with your actual consumption but is based on a figure
provided by the previous provider termed “EAC” which turns out was incorrect in my case.
Seems to me that it is pointless providing monthly meter readings and accurate data if they arent then used to project your annual consumption but rely on a value submitted by a previous supplier.

I have just spoken to Bulb and apparently the estimate has very little to do with your actual consumption but is based on a figure provided by the previous provider termed "EAC" which turns out was incorrect in my case. Seems to me that it is pointless providing monthly meter readings and accurate data if they aren't then used to project your annual consumption but rely on a value submitted by a previous supplier.

Purely as another customer, this is what I have gleaned from another suppliers web site:

Estimated Annual Consumption (EAC)

The EAC is a calculation based on the electricity your property used over the last year and:

it is held in a centralised industry database
it is usually updated twice a year depending on how often your previous supplier submitted meter readings to the database</i>

The equivalent for GAS is

Annualised Quantity (AQ)

AQ is held on a centralised industry database and is reviewed yearly

Therefore it appears Bulb are supplied by a central organisation with your estimated usage for the next year.

The only way you can get future accurate figured for estimated usage is to keep submitting regular meter readings.

I have no idea for the great disparity of your actual usage for the last 9 months of 2941Kw of electricity against in theory an estimates usage of 8268kw for a 12 month period. However the next time the centralised database is updated (apparently possibly twice a year) I would assume the estimates usage will be lowered based on your 2941 for the 9 months.

I have just spoken to Bulb and apparently the estimate has very little to do with your actual consumption but is based on a figure provided by the previous provider termed "EAC" which turns out was incorrect in my case. Seems to me that it is pointless providing monthly meter readings and accurate data if they aren't then used to project your annual consumption but rely on a value submitted by a previous supplier.

Purley as another customer, this is what I have gleaned from another suppliers web site:

Estimated Annual Consumption (EAC)

The EAC is a calculation based on the electricity your property used over the last year and:

it is held in a centralised industry database
it is usually updated twice a year depending on how often your previous supplier submitted meter readings to the database</i>

The equivalent for GAS is

Annualised Quantity (AQ)

AQ is held on a centralised industry database and is reviewed yearly

Therefore it appears Bulb are supplied by a central organisation with your estimated usage for the next year.

The only way you can get future accurate figured for estimated usage is to keep submitting regular meter readings.

I have no idea for the great disparity of your actual usage for the last 9 months of 2941Kw of electricity against in theory an estimates usage of 8268kw for a 12 month period. However the next time the centralised database is updated (apparently possibly twice a year) I would assume the estimates usage will be lowered based on your 2941 for the 9 months.

PS After I posted the above, I have checked all my statements from June to November this year and each month my annual estimated usage changed compared to the previous month, so it appears it isn’t correct to say the central database is updated yearly or possibly twice a year.

@CJAPeterborough @scudo @Allanr

EACs & AQs are updated every time you submit a meter reading. If an erroneous reading is added then it can make the annual figures skewed for a little while. The more readings you submit, the more accurate the figures become and any previous inaccuracies will become less significant.

It seems the EAC figure used is set by your original supplier and if this is incorrect at the start it will continually skew the running monthly figure…the question is when does it reset? Surely if you have a 12mth history with Bulb the figure for the next 12mths should be based on that.

In my case despite having a 10 year history with Scottish Power and with an average consumption of around 5000KW Electricity (approx 70% at night rate economy 7) and 12000KW for Gas the electricity figure during that time…the figure was used by Bulb was vastly over estimated at the start.

The above figures were used when I originally applied to move to Bulb.

So we will have to see what happens when I have a full 12mth history with Bulb perhaps then a more accurate projection will result!